What is Market Regime in Crypto?
A market regime is a classification of the current market environment based on risk appetite, trend direction, volatility, and cross-asset correlations. Recognizing the regime helps traders align strategy with conditions.
The Four Main Crypto Market Regimes
1. Risk-On (Bull Market)
Characterized by rising prices, high momentum, low volatility, and positive funding rates. Altcoins typically outperform Bitcoin. Correlations with equities may be positive. Strategy: trend-following, long exposure, leverage cautiously.
2. Risk-Off (Bear Market)
Falling prices, high volatility, negative funding, and flight to stablecoins or cash. Bitcoin often outperforms altcoins as capital seeks relative safety. Strategy: reduce exposure, hedge with shorts, accumulate selectively.
3. Accumulation
Prices stabilize after a prolonged decline. Smart money begins buying while retail remains fearful. Volatility compresses. On-chain metrics like exchange outflows and long-term holder supply rise. Strategy: dollar-cost averaging, patience.
4. Distribution
Prices plateau near highs. Early buyers begin selling to late entrants. Volume often declines while volatility remains low. On-chain: exchange inflows rise, long-term holders distribute. Strategy: take profits, reduce leverage, tighten stops.
How Mirkaso Detects Market Regime
Mirkaso combines derivatives data (funding, OI, liquidations), on-chain metrics (MVRV, NUPL), and macro correlations (BTC/SPX, VIX) to classify the current regime in the Macro Analysis dashboard.